What To Watch For: Arguably the most balanced team at the Tour, Jumbo is exquisitely constructed to dominate the race. And Pogačar was surprisingly slow at the Slovenian national championships, finishing just third with longer, flatter TTs this year and the durable strength of riders like Roglič and 2018 Tour winner Geraint Thomas in the discipline, that’s not a weakness Pogačar can afford. Last year’s unforgettable ride included a steep finishing climb, so it’s a different kind of effort. If there’s any weak spot in Pogačar’s game, it might be flatter TTs. Pogačar not only won’t sneak up on anyone this year other teams will race more aggressively, which was widely seen as Jumbo’s big mistake last year (albeit only in hindsight). Then he capitalized on a rare off day in the TT by rival Primoz Roglič. Last year, Pogačar had a perfect Tour: he stayed close to the yellow jersey, but never took a lead that would’ve forced his weak team to defend. But I have to make the devil’s advocate case, so here it is: it’s really, really hard to win consecutive Tours. Why They Won’t Win: The flaw in the conceit of this preview is that, well, one team is going to win the Tour, right? And it’s most likely UAE. He is the most talented stage racer in the sport in just his third pro season, and he won’t even turn 23 until September. His Tour squad is better than last year’s outfit. What’s more, his win rate is accelerating this year he has won three of the four stage races he entered. The defending champion turned pro in 2019 and, after getting his rookie jitters out of the way at the Tour Down Under, has finished no lower than sixth overall in every stage race since. I’ve only written 20 words on this team so far and eight of them have been this guy’s name. Top Riders: Tadej Pogačar, Tadej Pogačar, and Tadej Pogačar
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